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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has vowed to deploy armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against each other. The election has become an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to Americans' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

However, if the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a surprising comeback victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of cautious, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on targeting the candidate directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in recent days, after video emerged appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a DSA gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd