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Well. From one perspective, the nation's protracted campaign to host the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to host the largest global climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next fall.

This won't occur. Rather, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate the country's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials truly desired the bid to be approved. His statements sent mixed messages at best. This led to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the communication being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While Bowen championed it, other senior members of the government have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. But there is another way to consider it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the countries actually attend for – the talks on how to together combat the climate crisis.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the international community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the UN climate process. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid clearly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the Australian bid.

But, uniquely, Ankara refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the oil producers that provided the Turkish government with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is considered aligned with the Russian leader. Some countries feared a summit obstructed from the leadership if his government led the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an unprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the fight against global heating. This joint approach is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Despite understandable criticism of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for increasing fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This matters. While some have dismissed the role of a "president of negotiations", experts from academic institutions and experienced analysts at climate talks say it is crucial to their success.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a leader holding the pen who can understand, build consensus and deliver an significant result. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the conference except for making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations is essential at environmental summits. What, if at all, can the Australian government do to prevent a crackdown on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this arrangement looking like the best chance available to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific, the nation and the world. This attempt is justified.