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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will present the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would serve as guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the territorial question. One proposal involves Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security units instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.